John Berger
Senior Editor
And then there were two. After a six month college basketball season and a 68 team tournament, only Louisville and Michigan remain standing. On Saturday, Louisville came back from a 12 point deficit to defeat Wichita State, and Michigan led Syracuse for pretty much the entire last 30 minutes of the game, and ended up holding on to advance to the final. The first semifinal, Wichita State vs Louisville, was very interesting because it was really the first time in a while that Louisville has been tested. They trailed 47-35 in the second half, when Tim Henderson, a walk-on replacing the injured Kevin Ware, made two straight threes to cut the lead in half. It was a pretty cool moment, seeing Ware, sitting on the ground as a result of his broken leg, watching his replacement Henderson come in and make some big plays.
Wichita State did a really good job on Louisville defensively for a large part of the game, but in the last ten minutes of the game, Louisville scored 27 points. Peyton Siva, Gorgui Dieng, and Wayne Blackshear, three of Louisville’s starters, combined to score 7 points. If that happens against Michigan, it will be nearly impossible for the Cardinals to win.
In the other semifinal game, Michigan looked really good for a long time, but kind of limped towards the finish line. The Wolverines used a great close to the first half to take an 11 point lead at halftime. They struggled to expand on the lead in the second half though, and Syracuse gradually cut into the lead. With 19 seconds to go, and Syracuse down two, Brandon Triche drove to the hoop and was called for a charge, which was a controversial call.
Michigan was the better team overall throughout the game, but the way they finished isn’t terribly encouraging. Either way, the name of the game in the tournament is to survive and advance. And Michigan did just that.
Michigan vs Louisville- Monday, 9:23, Atlanta:
Despite the fact that Michigan really faltered this season during the second half of Big Ten Conference Play, and Louisville went through their own slide at one point, if you asked a college basketball fan back in early January who they thought the two best teams in the country were, there’s a good chance they would’ve said Louisville and Michigan. On Jan. 7, Michigan was ranked second and Louisville was ranked third in the AP Poll. Both teams have appeared to be in early January form over the last few weeks, and that’s why they’re in the championship game.
They’re both very balanced with a ton of talent, and I think the differing styles and strengths on both ends of the court will make for a very competitive championship game. They say that styles make fights, and in that case, tonight’s game should be very fun to watch.
For a long time now, it has been no secret that Michigan is stronger on offense than they are on defense. Their defense ranges from being porous to serviceable. Michigan’s defense is ranked at 35 on kenpom.com. Michigan typically likes to just go with straight man to man on defense, although they’ll throw in a little zone occasionally, and I would expect John Beilein to throw in some wrinkles if he doesn’t like how his defense is playing. As with most man to man defenses, the key in this one will be individual match-ups. Louisville and Michigan are both quick in certain positions, and have similar height with their starting lineups.
Trey Burke is good on defense, and he forces about 1.5 steals per game. I’d expect that he’ll start out on Peyton Siva when Michigan is on defense. Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely guard Russ Smith, which will be interesting because Hardaway will have about a five inch height advantage over Smith. Gorgui Dieng will matchup with Mitch McGary. McGary is good at defending the low block, but Dieng is usually very good at hitting jumpers out to about 15 feet. McGary will have to be comfortable guarding that area on the floor, as Louisville likes to use Dieng a lot out of the high post. Chane Behanan and Glenn Robinson III will likely guard each other. Both play the power forward position, but they’re slightly undersized for that role. Robinson and Behanan are both only 6′ 6”. The wing position will be interesting to watch when Michigan is on defense. Nik Stauskas is Michigan’s worst defender, and he struggles a lot when he has to defend dribble penetration. Wayne Blackshear is very athletic and usually starts for Louisville at small forward, but he’s been somewhat replaced recently by Luke Hancock. Without Hancock, Louisville doesn’t win on Saturday. He scored 20 points on 6-9 shooting. Hancock has been on fire recently from behind the three point line, as he’s made 23 of his last 45 from three.
Michigan typically likes to use a basic “hedge and recover” method when it pertains to defending the pick and roll. McGary and Robinson are both pretty quick, so they have the personnel needed to corral Siva and Smith. The key for Michigan will be if they can keep Louisville out of the paint, while still contesting Hancock on his three point attempts. I don’t think it’ll too challenging for them to hold their own on the defensive boards.
When Louisville is on defense and Michigan is on offense, it will be the most intriguing part of the game. Whoever wins this battle will likely win the game. Michigan has the most efficient offense in the country, and Louisville has the most efficient defense in the country.
Michigan’s offense is great, and a large part of that is because they have the best offensive player in the country, Trey Burke. Burke only went 1-8 from the field on Saturday, and that spells trouble for Louisville. Simply put, Burke does not have two bad games in a row. I think he was bothered a lot by Syracuse’s size on defense, particularly their guards. That’s not something he’ll have to deal with in the championship game. Louisville will likely open up in zone, and their guards are both around 6 feet tall. While Louisville is extremely good at denying dribble penetration, Burke is extremely good at getting into the paint. And if you sag off of him, he’s got deep range on his three point shot.
Look for Michigan to use a lot of high ball screens with McGary, allowing Burke to play a little two man game with him, and giving Burke the option to spread the ball to one of Michigan’s many shooters. Against Syracuse, Beilein used both Hardaway Jr. and McGary in the high post to facilitate open looks against the defense. I think he’ll try to do the same against Louisville, particularly because Hardaway can cause matchup problems if Dieng defends him one on one when the defense triggers to switch to man to man.
Michigan decimated VCU’s press defense during their second game of the tournament. Louisville’s press a little different though, in that they don’t sell out like VCU does. Louisville likes to use what’s called the “run and jump” method, where they trap the ball handler after he’s beaten the initial pressure. This pressing style allows for Louisville to fall back into their half-court defense quicker and easier than VCU, and it means that Michigan will have less transition points.
Conversely, Michigan only turns the ball over about 10 times per game, and Louisville
relies on opponents to turn the ball over. Their success as a team, not just a defense, is directly correlated to how many turnovers they’re able to force.
There will be a lot of important factors in tonight’s championship game, but Louisville’s defense against Michigan’s offense will be very important. Whoever can win that, and the turnover battle, will probably win the game. I think Louisville will do just enough to win the national championship. Against the Cardinals, you have to be great for a full 40 minutes in order to win, and I don’t think Michigan will have enough to do that. Regardless of the outcome, it should be a competitive game.
Pick: Louisville
Tonight I’ll be tweeting out some thoughts during the game, so be sure to follow me at @JBergerCourant on twitter.
