Juan Pablo Rivera Garza
Blogs Editor
Its official: the presidential race is all tied up. Recent polls have put President Obama and Governor Romney in a tight race, with polls showing their leads within the margin of error or tied. However, even though the popular vote is extremely tight, the electoral college map at this point heavily favors President Obama. If the election was held today, Obama would win the electoral college 294 to Governor Romney’s 244.
This still points to a tight race, but President Obama still has a large advantage, and he has the ability to win Florida and North Carolina because of his large amount of grassroots support in both states. How can Romney win then? Well, the way I look at it, he has three choices:
The first is an electoral strategy focusing on the swing states in the North to North-East. The states he should specifically focus on are New Hampshire (where the president has a 6.4% lead according to RealClear Politics polling data), Pennsylvania (where the President is leading by 7%) and Ohio (where the president is leading by 4.6%). These states are known for their ability to swing both ways, especially New Hampshire which went for President Bush in the 2000 election. Ohio has also gone Republican as recently as 2004, while Pennsylvania has always been known to have a bit of a conservative streak. If Governor Romney were to follow this strategy he would win 286 to President Obama’s 252.
The second strategy governor Romney could pursue is what I like to call “The Mid-West Plan”. The states in focus would be Ohio (once again a state very much in play), Iowa (where the president has a 4 point advantage, and Wisconsin (The president has a measly 1.6 advantage there). The Mid-West would be a perfect place for Governor Romney to focus, as a large chunk of the electorate are white-working class voters who have always felt a disconnect with Obama. But, this plan also has its pitfalls, with the auto industry coming back to life many of these states’ unemployment rates are hugely below the national average. With these improved economic conditions, Governor Romney is going to have to find a way to paint himself as better for the economy, especially because he was against the Auto Industry Bailout that saved so many Mid-Western jobs. If he does succeed, Governor Romney will win the election with 278 electoral votes to the President’s 260.
Finally, Governor Romney could follow the most conventional of all the plans, in which he just barely makes it through the electoral college, by picking up Ohio and Virginia. Ohio, as I mentioned before, is a state that is definitely in play this election, and its 18 electoral votes are coveted by both sides. Virginia, which traditionally was Republican stronghold until the election of 2008, is also very tempting. According to recent polls, the president only leads by an average of 3.2 points and its 13 electoral points would be a huge boost for the Romney Campaign. If Governor Romney follow this plan he wins with 275 points, while the president loses with 263.
Governor Romney has a huge disadvantage, and it is evident that no matter which plan he chooses he will have to battle tooth and nail with the president. The president may have a big advantage, but make no doubt about it, he can lose.
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