John Berger
Senior Editor
It’s that time of year again. Every March, millions of people across the country fill out a March Madness bracket, whether it’s an office pool or with friends and family. Before every week’s games during the tournament, I’ll break down the bracket and the upcoming match-ups. Right now we’ll start with the opening weekend of the tournament, where upsets are frequent, and brackets are often burst.
Here are my picks:
Midwest Bracket
Colorado State vs Missouri- Thursday 9:20, Lexington, Kentucky:
Missouri started out the year ranked fifteenth in the country, but they’ve been somewhat disappointing during the regular season. They finished sixth in a mediocre SEC conference. Alex Oriakhi has had a good bounce-back year, averaging 11 points and 9 rebounds a game. Laurence Bowers has recovered well from a knee injury that sidelined him a year ago, and he’s Missouri’s most important player. Both Mizzou and Colorado State pound the boards, each ranking in the top five in the country in rebounds per game. In addition, they both grab about 40 percent of all available offensive rebounds. This game will probably be played at a pretty quick pace, with the winning team in the 70’s. I like Mizzou to win, provided point guard Phil Pressey plays well. I just don’t think CSU has the playmakers to match up with them.
Pick: Missouri
Oklahoma State vs Oregon- Thursday 4:40, San Jose, California:
Oregon’s seed in this tournament is a little strange. They finished second in the Pac-12, and won the conference tournament, yet they’re seeded twelfth, which is typically where bubble teams are seeded. Oregon doesn’t have a dominant scorer, but they are good inside, and they should have a big advantage down low against Oklahoma State. Both teams are about average in terms of efficiency, but they both really struggle to shoot three pointers. Marcus Smart is a good all-around player for Oklahoma State, but I think Oregon has the coaching advantage, and the advantage in the paint. I like them to win.
Pick: Oregon
Creighton vs Cincinnati- Friday 2:45, Philadelphia, PA:
This game is really interesting to me because both teams are different in terms of their style of play. Cincy likes to grind games out with really good defense, whereas Creighton usually neglects that side of the floor, but is really good on offense. Creighton is the best three point shooting team in the country, and they also have the best effective field goal percentage in the nation. Cincinnati is ranked in the top 10 in opponent’s effective field goal percentage, so it will be very interesting to see how Creighton’s offense matches up with Cincy’s defense. Creighton’s Doug McDermott is probably the most skilled offensive player in the country, and I think he’ll end up being too much for Cincinnati, who has been kind of disappointing this year.
Pick: Creighton
West Bracket
Pitt vs Wichita State- Thursday 1:40, Salt Lake City, Utah:
If there’s one thing I’ve learned after doing brackets for about the last 10 years, it is that you never pick Pitt to go far. Never. I’ve come up with a rule. If I think Pitt should advance to a certain round, I always pick them to lose in the round before, because they almost always choke in the tournament, no matter what their seed is. In this case I think they’re probably better than Wichita State, but they are Pitt after all. Pittsburgh beat Georgetown by 28 on the road a few months ago, which is very surprising in hindsight, but they’ve only beaten one other team all year that is seeded in the top eight of the bracket. Go with Wichita State here.
Pick: Wichita State
Wisconsin vs Ole Miss- Friday 12:40, Kansas City, Missouri:
I guarantee you that Ole Miss has the most entertaining player in the entire tournament. Marshall Henderson is the kind of guy that opposing fanbases just hate. Part of it is because he’s white (the most hated player in college basketball is always white,) and part of it is because of his antics on the court. There’ll be a nice juxtaposition on display Friday, because Wisconsin is typically very fundamentally sound, and they play a plodding, grind-it-out style of basketball. The Badgers always rank highly for efficiency stats on kenpom.com. They beat a few good teams last year to reach the conference final of the Big 10 tournament. I like them to get by Ole Miss here.
Pick: Wisconsin
Arizona vs Belmont- Thursday 7:20, Salt Lake City, Utah:
Belmont has been a trendy upset pick for this tournament, which is really nothing new for them. They’re well coached, experienced, and played really well in conference. They’ve always been a team that people like to win a game or two in the tournament. The problem is that it never happens, they’re 0-5 in the NCAA Tournament in their program’s history. Arizona started off the year really well, and then slid a bit after the new year. They’re still way too talented to lose this one.
Pick: Arizona
Notre Dame vs Iowa State- Friday 9:45, Dayton, Ohio:
Notre Dame is a team that always seems to underachieve in March, and this year’s team is definitely not as talented as some of the teams they’ve had in years past. Jack Cooley is a really good low post player who averages a double-double, but Notre Dame, under Mike Brey, has been built on their ability to make threes and their ability to prevent drives on defense. Unfortunately for them, they don’t really shoot threes all that well this season. Both of these teams have struggled against top competition, but I think Notre Dame is better suited to win this one.
Pick: Notre Dame
South Bracket
North Carolina vs Villanova- Friday 7:20, Kansas City, Missouri:
Despite the fact that they have 10 losses, and got beaten badly against Duke at home to close out the regular season, I like this North Carolina team a lot. They’ve played better over the last six weeks or so of this season, and yet they’ve flown under the radar, which is rare for a UNC team. Most importantly, they have a number of guys who will play in the NBA, and that’s what wins in March. Villanova runs hot and cold, and I don’t think they have the firepower to match North Carolina.
Pick: North Carolina
UCLA vs Minnesota- Friday 9:57, Austin, Texas:
Minnesota is another team that is a popular upset pick. UCLA just lost Jordan Adams for the rest of the season due to an injury, and he was averaging 15 points a game for them. He’s a big loss, but I think this gives stud freshman Shabazz Muhammed a chance to shoulder more of the load for the Bruins. People also forget that Minnesota has had some really bad losses this season, and they haven’t won a game since March 2. I think Minnesota will definitely win the battle on the boards in this game, but they’ll end up losing on the scoreboard.
Pick: UCLA
East Bracket
UNLV vs California- Thursday 7:27, San Jose, California:
This is somewhat of a home game for Cal, even though they’re a 12 seed. UNLV has been a little disappointing this season because they haven’t quite been able to duplicate the pace of last year’s high flying team. Anthony Bennett is by far the best player on UNLV’s team, and a strong candidate to potentially be the number one overall pick in June’s NBA draft. On the other side, Cal’s Allen Crabbe is really, really good, and he was the Pac-12’s player of the year. Ultimately though, Cal was throttled by arch rival Stanford in the last game of the regular season, and followed that up by losing to a bad Utah team in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. I’m worried that they won’t be able to flip the switch in time to get ready for the tournament, even if they have the advantage in terms of location.
Pick: UNLV
Butler vs Bucknell- Thursday 12:40, Lexington, Kentucky:
Bucknell is in the tournament and in a position to win for one reason and that’s Mike Muscala. He’s a legitimate NBA prospect, and teams like Bucknell don’t have 6-11 big guys like him very often. The problem for Bucknell is they’re going against Brad Stevens and Butler, and I have a feeling that Stevens will devise a game plan that will neutralize Muscala. We’ve learned over the years that Butler is very hard to beat in the NCAA tournament, and I see that continuing here.
Pick: Butler
Marquette vs Davidson- Thursday 3:10, Lexington, Kentucky:
Call this an upset special for me. This is one of those match-ups where one team was overseeded and the other team was underseeded. I think Davidson is good enough to be a 12 seed, and Marquette should’ve been about a five seed. If you look at it like that, it no longer becomes that far-fetched. Davidson is balanced, experienced, efficient, and well-coached, and that’s usually a very good combination at this point in the year. Truth be told, Buzz Williams did a very good job with Marquette this year, and they probably over-achieved a bit. My gut is telling me to pick Davidson here.
Pick: Davidson
Illinois vs Colorado- Friday 4:40, Austin, Texas:
Illinois has beaten a lot of good teams this year. They destroyed Gonzaga at Gonzaga, they beat Indiana, they beat Butler by 17 and Ohio State by 19. The problem is that they can look really bad at times as well. Colorado has been out of the limelight nationally pretty much all year, but they have been solid. I think Illinois will win this game and then give Miami a big scare in the next round.
Pick: Illinois
