Global conflicts draw on scarce interceptor missile systems

Graham Jackson, NC Globe Editor-in-Chief

Featured image credit: U.S. Army/Wikimedia Commons (Public Domain)

In recent years, advanced American missile defense systems, like the Patriot and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) have been used extensively in the intense fighting in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Missile defense systems use radars, launchers, and advanced interceptor-missiles to track and destroy aerial threats before they can reach their targets. Global conflicts have created a massive demand for the weapons and resulted in drained stockpiles.

Since the Russo-Ukrainian War began in 2022, Russia has launched constant bombardments of missiles and drones at civilian targets across major Ukrainian cities like Kyiv and Odesa. In the initial months of the conflict, Ukraine’s air defenses relied primarily on old Soviet systems that struggled to keep pace with the requirements of the conflict.

In 2023, Washington gave Kyiv its first Patriot missile battery (it has received several more since), allowing it to more effectively deal with complex threats and protect its home turf from aerial attack. This system has been particularly effective for Ukraine due to its capacity to deal with a wide variety of targets.

According to one of the system’s manufacturers, Raytheon (a subsidiary of the defense contractor RTX), a Patriot battery can “identify and defeat tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, advanced aircraft and other threats.” Russia has used a variety of one-way attack drones and missiles to harass Ukrainian cities and their populations, making this system an integral part of Ukraine’s arsenal.

However, the Russo-Ukrainian War isn’t the only conflict that has required advanced air defense systems. In the Middle East, during the U.S.-Iran War, Iran’s retaliatory ballistic missile, cruise missile and drone barrages forced the U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies to expend large amounts of interceptor missiles to protect civilians, infrastructure and military sites.

The combined effects of these conflicts has significantly drained the limited U.S. stockpiles of the weapons, leaving the potential for gaps in its global defense commitments. According to the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in the U.S.-Iran War, the U.S. used an estimated 1,060 to 1,430 Patriot missiles and 190-290 THAAD missiles. This is out of estimated prewar stockpiles of 2,330 and 360 missiles, respectively.

Due to the complex nature of the systems, supply chain bottlenecks and post-Cold War defense downsizing, the interceptor missiles have long order backlogs and low rates of production. While the U.S. government has led efforts to expand the manufacturing output of these systems, CSIS reports that it takes 42 months to deliver a Patriot missile and 53 to deliver a THAAD missile. The SM-3, an advanced interceptor missile used by the U.S. Navy, requires a total of 64 months.

According to the Department of Defense, it has formed agreements and deals with the defense contractors, L3Harris, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Honeywell Aerospace to expand production of key components to the Patriot PAC-3 MSE (a variant of the interceptor) and THAAD missiles.

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While the interceptor missile stockpiles run low globally, the crunch in Ukraine is particularly perilous as Russia launches regular aerial strikes on its cities and it has nearly exhausted its own supply. Furthermore, in recent months Washington has been hesitant to transfer some of its own limited Patriot missiles to Kyiv.

In an interview with CNN, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said “I’m asking American partners to sell me 5% of what they have in their [Patriot] stocks. If they sell us 5%, we will go through the winter and save peoples’ lives.”

Repeated Russian drone and ballistic and cruise missile strikes leave Kyiv with a constant need for interceptor missiles like the Patriot. While Ukraine struggles to acquire interceptors, Moscow has increased offensive missile production. President Zelensky said “Russia has two times more ballistic missiles per month than they had before.”

While the Patriot missile shortage most directly impacts Ukraine today, it ripples into the Indo-Pacific region and would likely influence a potential future conflict over Taiwan. Taiwan is a small island-democracy that China has claimed as its own since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when Nationalists escaped the Communist forces occupying the mainland and created an independent government.

Taiwan, with a population of approximately 23.2 million people according to the Ministry of the Interior, is not recognized by the United Nations as an independent country and has relied on the U.S. for defense aid since President Franklin D. Roosevelt began in 1940. Beijing has grown assertive over its claim that Taiwan is its own, with U.S. intelligence reporting that Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has asked commanders to be ready to take Taiwan through force by 2027.

China, like Russia and Iran, has a large arsenal of offensive ballistic and cruise missiles that require interceptors to defend against. While Taipei does have missile defense systems like the American Patriot, Beijing’s expansive arsenals could saturate and overwhelm targets during an invasion or attack to seize the island.

China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, has increased exercises and actions around Taiwan in recent years, including live-fire drills that Taipei has criticized.

With global tension points now facing the increased pressure of missile interceptor shortages, the risk of major shifts in the geopolitical landscape has increased. If the shortage is not resolved then aggressive powers may take advantage of vulnerabilities in their opponents’ defenses.