Bobby Mushkin, @bmushkincourant
Super wild card weekend brought us some fireworks and some unexpected results. Upsets highlighted the weekend with both six seeds beating the three seeds in a pretty convincing fashion. The six seeded Los Angeles Rams beat the three seeded Seattle Seahawks 30-20. The Rams defense proved to be too much for the Seahawks, finishing with 6 sacks and an interception returned for a touchdown. In the AFC, the six seeded Browns beat the three seeded Pittsburgh Steelers 48-37. The Browns got up 28-0 in the first quarter after three early interceptions from Ben Roethlisberger. From there the Steelers made a run, cutting the lead to 35-23 with plenty of time remaining. However the Browns offense was just too much for the Steelers. Additionally, the Buffalo Bills beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-24, the Baltimore Ravens beat the Tennessee Titans 20-13, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Washington Football Team 31-23, and the New Orleans Saints beat the Chicago Bears 21-9. These results set up an exciting divisional round starting on Saturday, January 16th.
Rams @ Packers 4:35 PM ET, 1/16
To start off the weekend, Aaron Donald and the Rams trek into chilly Green Bay to face off against the one seeded Packers. The Packers finished this year at 13-3, and earned themselves a first round bye. They start off their 2021 playoffs against a pesky Rams team. Green Bay’s offense has been special this year, highlighted by their dynamic duo of Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams.
But the Rams defense was ranked number one all year. They have players like all pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald, all pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and other defensive studs like Leonard Floyd and Michael Brockers. Out of all the possible matchups for the Green Bay Packers, the Rams might be the most difficult. Jalen Ramsey is able to shut down his entire side of the field on his own. He will be on fellow all pro receiver Devante Adams. His ability to shut down his side of the field allows for the Rams to put multiple bodies on the other side of the field to stop the number two and three receivers for the other team. This will make it difficult for players like Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who have been playing well because of the attention Devante Adams draws, to get it going.
Also, something the Packers and Aaron Rodgers do that make their offense so potent, is they do a lot of audibles and movement pre snap in order to confuse the opposing defense and get lots of easy 5-10 yard completions. This is so important to have a successful offense, getting ahead of the down with easy, positive completions can seriously propel your offense. The issue is, the Rams defense won’t be confused by this. That eliminates the most lethal aspect of the Packers offense and will make their life much, much more difficult. The Rams have a serious chance of playing the spoiler role again in Green Bay, simply because their defense is so dominant.
That being said, the Rams offense is not something to marvel at. They have just two touchdowns in their last 35 offensive drives, and are struggling to finish off drives. The Packers defense has been steadily improving all season, particularly their run defense. At week 9 their run defense was ranked at number 31, almost dead last. But since then they have been great at stopping the run, bolstering themselves all the way up to the 14th best run defense. Their pass defense is highlighted by all pro Jaire Alexander and have been a lockdown group all season.
Expect a low scoring game with lots of pressure being put on both quarterbacks. While I do believe that the Rams have a very good chance of pulling off the upset, I will say this. The Packers have played against the leagues top defenses this year. They went up against teams like the Chicago Bears, the New Orleans Saints, and the Indianapolis Colts, all who have top five defenses. Going into those games, the narrative was that Aaron Rodgers would be neutralized and the Packers would need to win a defensive battle. But in each of those games Rodgers tore up these defenses and showed that nobody can stop the Packers offense. So while the Rams defense is the best in the NFL, the Packers have made stout defensive teams look pedestrian. This just means that it is entirely possible that we see why the Packers were the number one seed and they handle the Rams in Green Bay. Either way, it is going to be a good one, so tune in on Saturday, January 16th at 4:35 ET.
Ravens @ Bills 8:15 ET, 1/16
To cap off the Saturday games, the Baltimore Ravens take a trip north to Buffalo to face off against the Bills. The Ravens, led by their former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, just picked up their first playoff win in six years and are getting hot at the right time. They have won six games in a row and just eliminated the team that broke their hearts a year ago in the divisional round. The Bills picked up a win in Buffalo against the seven seeded Colts, their first playoff victory in 25 years. Buffalo is riding high, led by their quarterback Josh Allen, who is having a breakout season and is turning into a superstar right in front of us. Buffalo’s offense is nearly impossible to stop. They made a trade to acquire star receiver Stefon Diggs and oh boy has it paid off. Diggs led the league in receiving yards and catches this year, and him and Allen are a dominant duo.
But this game won’t be easy for the Bills offense, the Ravens defense has been a brick wall all season. Their defensive line is highlighted by future hall of famer Calais Campbell, who is impossible to run on. Their linebacking core is highlighted by rookie Patrick Queen, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He is a candidate for defensive rookie of the year and is showing flashes of star potential. Possibly their greatest strength on defense is their secondary. It consists of Marlon Humphrey, who is budding into a top five corner in the league, and Marcus Peters, who has been a shutdown corner for years now. Diggs will most likely have Marlon Humphrey chasing him all game, and will be faced with quite the challenge. However Diggs has been lighting up the best corners in the league all season, so we will see whether or not Humphrey can make a difference in shutting down the Bills most electrifying weapon.
Probably the most important aspect of this game will be whether or not the Ravens can contain Josh Allen and keep him in the pocket and make him a pocket passer. When Allen gets out of the pocket, he is at his most dangerous. He is very good at throwing on the run and is a more than capable runner. The Bills are a big play team. They get the ball, they move quickly up the field, and they score fast. They don’t run the ball very frequently and Allen has had the most 20+ yard completions in the league this season. Much of these big plays the Bills have are when Allen is scrambling out of the pocket and becomes a playmaker. Coverage can only hold up for so long, and when the play is busted and the quarterback is rolling out, that tends to be when players get open down field. This happens quite frequently for the Bills and that results in lots of big passing plays downfield. We saw it multiple times on Saturday against the Colts. If the Ravens want to contain this explosive Bills offense, they will need to keep Allen in the pocket, and when they get pressure on him, make sure they bring him down and don’t let him escape.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens offense must stick to what they do best, running the ball. The Bills defense is middle of the pack in stopping the run, and this is considered to be their weakness as a team overall. The Ravens rushing attack is what makes their offense so hard to stop. They rushed as a team for the fourth most yards in the history of the NFL, a year after they set the record last season. Lamar Jackson is one of the most lethal runners in the league at the quarterback position, and at any position for that matter. Alongside him is J.K Dobbins, the rookie back out of Ohio State, and Gus Edwards, or “Gus the Bus,” forming a lethal rushing trio. If the Ravens can stick to their rushing attack and use play action off those runs, their offense should be able to get what they want against the Bills. It will be tough for the Ravens receivers to get separation against a secondary led by Tre’davious White, but Mark Andrews, the star tight end, should have a big day.
Don’t get me wrong, the Bills are definitely favored to win this game. They have a much more consistent offense, and a more than capable defense. They are hungry, and they are very, very good. Overall, they have been a better team than the Ravens all year. But watch out for the Ravens. The Ravens are one of the most dangerous teams in this year’s playoffs, for one reason. Because they lost last year. The Ravens finished last year at 14-2, the best record in the league, and were dominant all year long. They went into the playoffs as a sure fire favorite to win the superbowl. They had a first round bye, and went into the divisional round to face the 9-7 Tennessee Titans. They lost in a gut wrenching fashion, and MVP Lamar Jackson had his worst game of the year, throwing 59 times, which is not his game, and throwing three interceptions. The superbowl favorite got shut down at home in their first playoff game, in one of the most unexpected upsets of the decade.
Now, how does this relate to this year and this game? I am going to make a comparison to a different sport with a similar scenario. In the NHL, during the 2018-2019 season the Tampa Bay Lightning dominated the league. They finished in first place by a mile, they had the MVP on their team and were favored to win it all. They were the Ravens of hockey. The Lightning went into a first round match against the eighth seeded Columbus Blue Jackets, who weren’t even supposed to be in the playoffs in the first place. The Lightning, the most dominant team in years, lost that series 4-0 in what will to this day be considered the greatest upset in the history of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So just like the Ravens, the Lightning were the most dominant team, with the MVP on their team, and they both got first rounded. But, the next season, the Lightning came back hungry for a championship. They had their struggles in the regular season, much like the Ravens, but they made the playoffs. They faced in the first round the team that had upset them the year before, the Blue Jackets. The Lightning handled the Blue Jackets and won the series. This is exactly like the Ravens, first round they faced off against the team that upset them a year before and beat them. Anyhow, the Lightning went on to dominate in the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup, and they all said they couldn’t have won it if they hadn’t been dealt the devastating loss the year before. They said they wouldn’t have learned to deal with adversity as a team and keep moving forward had it not been for their embarrassing defeat a year prior.
I know hockey and football are very different sports, but sports psychology is the same for every sport. The Ravens are so dangerous this year because of their loss last season. They have dealt with heartbreak, they have dealt with the disappointing loss, and all season they have dealt with adversity. From the covid outbreak, to losing four of five, they have been faced with many challenges this season. But now they have the experience, and they are hungry. They feel doubted and under appreciated and are playing with a chip on their shoulder. A perfect example of how they have developed as a team is what we saw on Sunday. They went down 10-0 early and Jackson threw an early interception. But they showed resilience and bounced back.
So while the Bills are the favorites to win this game, the Ravens are a serious threat. They know how to cope with adversity and they know if they got knocked down they have to get up and keep moving forward. Expect a really close battle in Buffalo on Saturday night in a thriller.
Browns @ Chiefs 3:05 PM ET, 1/17
The first of two games on Sunday the 17th, the Cleveland Browns take a trip to the midwest to face the one seeded and defending superbowl champion, Kansas City Chiefs. The Browns are coming off of their first playoff victory since 1994, on Sunday they defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 48-37 in a game where they led 35-10 at halftime and never took their foot off the gas. The Browns are led by their dynamic backfield, consisting of Nick Chubb, a former second round pick out of Georgia, and Kareem Hunt, the 2017 rushing champion. These two star running backs lead a lethal Browns rushing attack. The one-two punch of Chubb and Hunt has been on fire all season, as they both rushed for 1000 yards and at least 6 touchdowns. Chubb led the league in yards per carry at 5.6, and is known to some as the best pure runner in the game. At quarterback, the Browns have former heisman winner and number one overall pick Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has had an up and down career, starting off in his rookie year extremely well, breaking the rookie touchdown record. His second season was much worse, throwing 21 interceptions and just 22 touchdowns. But he came out in 2020 and had a much, much better season, only throwing eight interceptions and improving his passer rating from 78.8 to 95.9. The defensive side of the ball is where the Browns have struggled thus far, but they do have some superstars. Another former number one pick in the draft, Myles Garrett, has been nothing short of fantastic all season long for the Browns. He is a top three defensive end in the league and as a pass rusher he is a force to be reckoned with. In the secondary, it isn’t too good besides one guy, Denzel Ward, a second year player who is turning into a lockdown corner.
On the other side of the field you have the 14-2 Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, the superstar quarterback who is setting passing records left and right. Since entering the league in 2018, Mahomes has won MVP, a superbowl, and a superbowl MVP. Mahomes has weapons galore in his receiving core, led by all pro tight end Travis Kelce and pro bowl receiver Tyreek Hill. Kelce has been the staple of success at the tight end position, and this season he set the record for receiving yards in a season by a tight end. He finished second in the league overall and had a historic season. Hill had quite the year himself, finishing with 1276 yards and 15 touchdowns. He is the fastest player in the NFL and gives opposing defenses nightmares with his route running. Defense might be the closest thing to a weakness this Chiefs team has, which doesn’t say much because their defense is pretty good. They are led by star defensive tackle Chris Jones and polarizing safety Tyrann Mathieu. Their defense is ranked 10th overall and 6th in points scored. They are 16th in yards per game, so they have a bend-don’t-break mentality when it comes to stopping the opposing team from scoring.
This game is going to be extremely hard for the Browns to win, just because the Chiefs offense is so unstoppable and the Browns defense is just mediocre. Travis Kelce’s matchup against the linebacking core of the Browns might just be too much for the Browns to handle. If the Browns want to win this game, it is vital that they establish their run game early and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands. Chew as much time off the clock as you can, stay ahead of the chains, and have slow, methodical touchdown drives. You don’t want to play into Kansas City’s favor by letting it become a shootout. The best way for the Browns to win on Sunday is if they win the ball control battle and dominate time of possession.
Buccaneers @ Saints 6:40 PM ET 1/17
The final game of the divisional playoffs is the third and final meeting between the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The storyline is huge. Tom Brady vs Drew Brees. The old guys, at it again leading their teams deep into the playoffs.
Tampa Bay is obviously led by Tom Brady, the 43 year old wonder who just doesn’t seem to age. Brady is playing like he is 28 again, especially of late. Since the week 13 bye he has had five straight games with 300+ passing yards, and 4 of 5 games he has thrown for 3+ passing touchdowns. He is red hot right now and seems to be peaking at the perfect time as he looks to lead the Bucs deeper into the playoffs in his first season in Tampa. But Brady has plenty of help in his receiver room, with star receivers, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown. Evans just became the first receiver to post 1000 yards in their first seven seasons. He has been consistently one of the best receivers in the league and is considered to be the greatest receiver to put on a Bucs jersey. Chris Godwin emerged last season as a top pass catcher in the game. Battling injuries all season he is finally reaching his stride and looks to continue his recent stretch of good play. And the wild card, Antonio Brown. Brown was added mid way through the season, and if you know anything about football, you know Brown was one of the most dominant receivers ever. He had some off the field issues that nearly ended his career but Tampa gave him a second chance. And that chance is starting to pay off for the Bucs as Brown has 5 touchdowns in 4 games. On defense, the Buccaneers are led by their defensive line and linebackers. They have all led the Bucs to be the number one rushing defense in the league, they are basically impenetrable. They do struggle in the secondary and are ranked 23rd in the league against the pass.
The Saints fearless leader is Drew Brees, the 42 year old NFL legend. Brees has been a dominant passer since he entered the league and continues to light up the league even at his older age. Brees sustained a pretty serious rib injury halfway through the season and had some signs of rust when he first returned. But lately Brees has been back to his usual form coming off a great performance in a 21-9 victory over the Bears. The Saints offense is full of playmakers, starting at the running back position with pro bowler Alvin Kamara. Kamara has made his third pro bowl in 4 seasons and had a fantastic season. On Christmas day Kamara tied an NFL record with six touchdown runs and 155 yards. He has had an incredible season as both a runner and a pass catcher. Michael Thomas, the Saints star receiver is coming off an interesting season. In 2019 he set an NFL record with 149 receptions, the most all time, and was an all pro receiver. This season, Thomas missed the first nine games of the season due to injury and team misconduct. He then began playing and had four up and down games, alternating between a great game and an average game. He then went back on injured reserve to get healthy and be prepared for a deep run in the playoffs. On defense the Saints had a great year overall. They had the sixth ranked defense, finishing fourth in rush yards and fifth in passing yards. They are led by linebacker Demario Davis and defensive end Cameron Jordan.
This matchup looks close on paper, if you take a look at the stats, these teams are one in the same. But on the field thus far, it has been quite the opposite. In week one the Saints beat the Bucs 34-23, handling them pretty easily. Now people gave the Bucs a pass for that one, given it was their first game of the season, no pre-season, and a completely new team. And many looked forward to seeing the Bucs bounce back in their week nine matchup in Tampa. But week nine brought a disastrous loss for the Bucs as Brady threw three interceptions in a 38-3 loss. The Bucs only ran the ball five times and the Saints completely dominated on both sides of the ball.
So the question is, are the regular season results telling us this game is over before it has even started? And honestly, it is tough to tell. In my analysis of both teams over the last eight weeks in the NFL, I say no. The Buccaneers are a completely different team compared to week nine. They have grown as a team and developed much better chemistry. Brady is playing much better and the weapons around him have elevated their game. But the biggest reason I say no is playoff Brady. Tom Brady is the greatest playoff performer the NFL has seen. He is first all time in the playoffs in pass yards, pass touchdowns, completion percentage, completions, and wins. Nobody has the ability to take their game to the next level when it really matters like Brady does. And that simple fact gives me the impression that it won’t be a Saints beat down on Sunday. The most important thing the Saints can do to help themselves win is put pressure on Brady. Brady’s one weakness is his pocket mobility. He is slow and unable to move around the pocket. In the 38-3 rout, the Saints had pass rushers in Brady’s face all game, disrupting his rhythm and causing him to throw a ton of interceptions. If the Saints can pressure Brady consistently it’ll be a difficult night for the Bucs.
All in all, expect a close game and a back and forth battle between two of the greatest players we have seen in this league. It will be a game for the ages between Brady and Brees so make sure to tune in.
