NFL Preview Part II – The AFC

John Berger
Senior Editor

Wednesday night’s game to open the NFL season saw the Dallas Cowboys knock off the defending champions, the New York Giants.

You can read my NFC preview here, but now it’s time to preview the AFC.

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots-

The Patriots and Packers are the poster boys of the new age in the NFL: highly efficient offenses with great quarterbacks and a plethora of passing options along with porous pass defenses. Those who read Balls last year know that I love advanced metrics. Last year the Patriots graded out very well when it came to offensive and special teams efficiency, ranking in the top 5 in the league in both categories. But they were 30th in defensive efficiency, according to footballoutsiders.com. They have to get better on that side of the ball if they want to return to the Super Bowl.

2. Buffalo Bills

When I saw the over/unders released from Vegas for the NFL regular season, I was shocked to see that the Bills’ number was 7.5.  This is a team that went 6-10 last season, and were 2-8 over the last 10 games of the season. But if you look at the Bills’ schedule, there is no reason they shouldn’t surpass last season’s win total. They have an extremely weak slate, and close the season with games against the Dolphins (twice), Colts, Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, and the Jets. With improved health, the addition of defensive end Mario Williams, and the Jets’ struggles, the Bills will finish second in the division behind the Patriots.

3. New York Jets

The Jets’ preseason woes have been discussed ad nauseum, as they scored a grand total of one touchdown in the preseason, and that touchdown came courtesy of Greg McElroy, who’s the third string quarterback. I think the Jets will come to really regret the Tim Tebow trade (if they haven’t already). Not that Tebow can’t provide value to an NFL team, he can, but the negatives he brings outweigh his positives if he’s the backup quarterback. In addition to quarterback concerns, the Jets have offensive line issues, and they’ll put a ton of pressure on their defense to perform well. I think they’ll be competitive, but not competitive enough to finish in the top half of the AFC east.

4. Miami Dolphins

Not really a ton to say here. Hard Knocks was interesting, and as mentioned in Part 1, Chad Johnson always provides theatrics. New coach Joe Philbin and new quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be interesting to follow, but this just isn’t a good football team.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens had the most efficient defense last year, and they ranked in the top 5 in both run defense and pass defense. They bring back a lot of starters, and bring in rookie Courtney Upshaw to bolster an already strong linebacking corp. I think Ray Lewis sees this as his last stand to make a Super Bowl run, and with Ray Rice and good quarterback play from Joe Flacco, they just may get there.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

I’ve seen a few people put the Cincinnati Bengals here, but I just can’t do it. The Steelers have been too good for too long to warrant me predicting them to finish third in their own division. Usually I hate that kind of logic, but I’m going to use it anyway. The Steelers did lose Hines Ward to retirement and they have a new offensive coordinator, but that may end up being a good thing. The Steelers were 12-4 last year and the best in the league against the pass, something that will be increasingly important in today’s pass happy NFL.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

It seems like every time you think the Bengals are dead as an NFL franchise, they somehow do just enough to make the playoffs. Well, last year they did just that, going 9-7 and making the playoffs as the second wild card team. I don’t think they’re going to be able to repeat that feat this year and return. They were only the 17th most efficient team last year and they also outperformed their pythagorean win total. The Bengals won largely through smoke and mirrors last year, and I doubt they’ll be able to do the same in 2012.

4. Cleveland Browns

The most interesting thing about the Browns is that they have a 28 year old rookie quarterback. Other than that, the entire team is boring, from the uniforms to the team name – the Browns. The AFC North will be a very tough division and the Browns have virtually no chance of finishing outside of the cellar.

AFC South

1. Houston Texas

There probably isn’t a team in the NFL that has a better combination of skill position players than the Texans. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are as good as it gets at their respective positions, and quarterback Matt Schaub is pretty good himself. Owen Daniels is a very good tight end and Ben Tate showed last year that he’s a very capable second running back. They were 4th in the league last year in points allowed, so there is no reason they shouldn’t win a very weak AFC South.

2. Tennessee Titans

This was a pretty tough pick, but I went with the Titans here because they were over .500 last year, and that was with Chris Johnson having a relatively down year by his standards. I think he’ll bounce back in a big way this year after a full offseason of preparation. They were pretty average across the board last year, ranking 15th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re not good enough to make the playoffs, but their good enough to finish second in the AFC South.

3. Indianapolis Colts

A lot of people are on the Andrew Luck bandwagon, and I have to say that I’m a fan too. He’s obviously still a rookie, but based on the preseason it seems like he’ll still be pretty productive. I have the Colts third because they have a ton of new players and a ton of young players, and there will inevitably be some growing pains. If they were to win 6 games this season I think you’d have to consider that to be a pretty successful year.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Running back Maurice Jones Drew held out for a good portion of training camp in hopes of getting a new contract, but he ended the hold out recently and it looks like he’s going to play in the opener. Having him play is big for the Jaguars. They have a young quarterback and MJD had a big usage rate last year, with 40 more carries than anyone else in the league. New owner Shahid Khan will attempt to change the culture around the Jaguars, but it’s going to be a long process. They’re going to struggle.

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos

The Broncos went 8-8 last year despite ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in both scoring offense and scoring defense. That may be reason for concern for many prognosticators, as it indicates the Broncos got by on a lot of luck last year. They outperformed their pythagorean win total by a whole two wins. But they were 9th in the league last year in variance according to footballoutsiders, which means they were pretty consistent week in and week out. Why am I picking them to finish first? For one, they have a veteran defense that has a lot of playmakers to make big plays on the defensive side of the ball. But the main reason is that they really upgraded themselves at quarterback, the single most important position in football. Last year’s quarterback Tim Tebow led the team to a bunch of wins, but he was also only the 37th most efficient quarterback in the league, and he was actually worse than the league average in terms of yards above replacement. Now the Broncos are bringing in a proven winner in Peyton Manning, and I think it will make a big difference

2. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers were a statistical oddity last year, and the year before that. They ranked in the top 6 in total offense and 16th in total defense last year, yet they only went 8-8. Phillip Rivers is a top 10 quarterback, and the schedule is manageable. There are legitimate concerns about the offensive line and other parts of the team, but they’re too good not to finish second.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have a young roster that is very talented. They have three very good skill position players, and they could be very dangerous if everyone stays healthy, unlike a year ago. They are one of the most intriguing teams in the league in my opinion, and a team that I’ll be monitoring closely.

4. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders went 8-8 in a division last year that didn’t have any great teams but had a lot of decent teams. They could honestly finish first in this division, but I didn’t see enough from them last year to warrant not picking them last in a division with three other good teams.

Predicted order of finish:

1. New England Patriots

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Houston Texans

4. Denver Broncos

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

6. San Diego Chargers