Bobby Mushkin, @bmushkincourant
Divisional Round Recap:
This weekend saw the second round of the NFC playoffs begin, and it started in Green Bay, Wisconsin with the Packers facing the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams number one defense faced the Packers number one scoring offense in a clash of strengths. The Green Bay offense proved to be too much as the Packers defeated the Rams 32-18. For the first time in his career, Aaron Rodgers will host the NFC Championship game at Lambeau field.
The final game in the NFC was a battle of hall of fame quarterbacks, Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, against Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints. This was a defensive battle throughout, but the three interceptions and fumble by the Saints wound up being the deciding factor. Brees goes down in potentially the final game of his illustrious career. The Buccaneers will face the Packers in Green Bay next Sunday.
Buccaneers @ Packers Sunday, 1/24 3:05PM ET
The First Battle
The first game of two on Sunday the 24th is between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers. This is the second meeting this season between these two teams, the first game being a blowout in favor of the Bucs. The Bucs won 38-10 in Tampa Bay, handing the Packers, at the time, their first loss of the season. Tom Brady played well, throwing for 166 and 2 touchdowns. Ronald Jones ran for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns, in a dominant game on the ground. But the largest factor in this game was the Bucs defense. They were all over the field, swarming the Packers offense, not allowing an inch.
MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers had by far his worst game of the season, throwing for 160 yards and 2 interceptions. One of those interceptions was returned for a touchdown, making the game 10-7. On the next possession, Rodgers threw another interception, something he rarely does. Overall, the Buccaneers dominated the Packers and won in a convincing fashion.
Similar outcome?
So, can we expect Sunday to be more of the same? I say, absolutely not. That game on October 18th was an anomaly for Rodgers. Rodgers almost always comes to play and brings his A game, this game against the Bucs was a rare occurrence. And the chances it happens again are slim to none. Rodgers is at the top of his game, playing arguably better than he ever has. He threw a career high 48 touchdowns this season, setting a franchise record. He led the league in QBR and recorded the lowest amount of interceptions. His passer rating led the league and was a career high at 121.5. Rodgers is guiding his offense to historic marks, they have the highest redzone touchdown percentage in 20 years.
The Bucs will have their hands full with this Packers offense. They might be the hottest team in the league right now, but the good news is that the Bucs are hot themselves. They have won six games in a row and Brady has been on fire in that stretch. Their offense had been playing well for a while, but it was a relieving sight for Bucs fans to see their defense be so successful against a potent offense.
I think this game is going to come down to which defense gets the most stops. Both of these offenses are high powered and can put points on the board. Both teams are going to move the ball and they are going to score. These two defenses are on the fringe of becoming great. It is going to come down to who gets that all important stop when the game is on the line.
Impact of the rushing attacks
Additionally, establishing the run game is so important for both teams. In the first game between these two teams, the Bucs ran the ball early and often. They had 158 yards on the ground and were a balanced attack. Green Bay only ran for 94 yards on this stout Buccaneers front, so it will be important for them to get some type of ground game going so their offense doesn’t become predictable and easier to guard. Last week, both teams ran the ball so well, and it really opened up the playbook and made the quarterback’s job easier. Look for both teams to run the ball early in this game.
Packers run defense vs. Buccaneers running backs
The success of the Packers run defense will have a large impact on the outcome of this game. The two headed monster of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette has been lethal the past 5 weeks, and they are showing out in the playoffs. They both put up strong outputs against the fourth ranked run defense of New Orleans. The Packers had a rough start to the year stopping the run, ranking 31st at week 9. But since then, they have elevated their game and held guys like Derrick Henry, a 2000 yard rusher, to just 90 yards on 28 carries.
If the Packers can stop the run, it will take out a huge portion of the Bucs playbook, play action. The Bucs are one of the best play action teams in the league, and it’s all set up by establishing a ground and pound game. If the Packers can eliminate the run game, the Bucs will be forced out of their usual play action and will become a heavy shotgun team. This will result in better coverage, more effective pass rush, and easier defensive play calling.
Buccaneers receivers vs. Packers secondary
Another critical aspect of the game will be the matchup of the Buccaneers receiving core against the Jaire Alexander led Packers secondary. Brady and the Bucs are a big play offense. Brady was first in the NFL with 36 completions, and second with 1,233 yards and 11 touchdowns on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. Brady averaged 9.08 yards per attempt; number one in the league. He loves airing it out downfield for his star receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown. Big passing plays are the hallmark of this offense.
But preventing big passing plays is the hallmark of the Packers defense. The Packers secondary has been excellent at limiting large plays downfield. In their divisional matchup with the Rams, the Packers didn’t allow a single 20+ yard completion. In fact, in their last 5 games, they have only allowed 4 total completions of 20+ yards. It’ll be interesting to see which lethal weapons win this battle Sunday afternoon.
Packers offensive line vs. Buccaneers defensive line
The battle of the Bucs defensive front and the Packers offensive line will have a resounding impact on this game. In the first four games of the Packers season, they allowed just 3 sacks. They traveled into Tampa Bay to face the Bucs, but they were down their best lineman, David Bakhtiari. In this matchup, the Packers yielded 5 sacks, almost double what they allowed through 4 games. Bakhtiari is out for the playoffs with a torn ACL, so they are still down their best lineman. But the line has been surprisingly good without him.
In the game against the Bucs earlier in the season, the offensive line didn’t just struggle to protect Rodgers, but they struggled with their run blocking as well. Green Bay came into the game averaging 150.8 rushing yards a game, but Tampa Bay put up a brick wall and allowed virtually nothing. The Packers 94 rush yards were inflated by an early 25 yard run from Jamaal Williams and a 20 yard run by A.J Dillon in garbage time. If not for those two meaningless runs, the Packers would’ve only averaged 2.6 yards per carry.
The Packers are coming off a game against the number one defense where they averaged 5.8 yards per carry, so it will be interesting to see if similar patterns from the first game arise, or if the Packers run game stays hot. If the Packers can’t protect Rodgers, this game could get ugly. The Buccaneers defense is young, fast, and hungry. They looked scary good last weekend against a very talented New Orleans offense.
A flaming hot Buccaneers secondary
In the week 6 matchup, the Packers had an all around bad day. But one thing that we saw from the Bucs defense was their ability to shut down the Packers receivers in that game. But let’s put that game behind us, what should concern the Packers is what the Bucs did to the Saints receivers last week. Michael Thomas, who set the record for receptions in a season last year, was held to zero catches on four targets. That’s an all pro caliber receiver, and he got shut down on Sunday. Take a look at what the Buccaneers secondary did to the Saints:
- Jamal Dean: two receptions allowed for 15 yards on five targets
- Sean Murphy-Bunting: three receptions allowed for 7 yards on five targets, interception
- Carlton Davis: one reception allowed for 16 yards on four targets
If the Packers struggle to crack through the Buccaneers hot secondary, it will be a repeat of October 18th.
X-Factor Players
The result of this game could easily sway either way, so here are some X-Factors to look out for. For the Packers, Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown– Against the Rams, with Jalen Ramsey shadowing Devante Adams, these two players played large roles. St. Brown made big catches and Lazard had the game clinching touchdown. If Devante Adams is drawing the attention he usually does, look for these two to make a significant contribution to the passing game.
The Buccaneers X-Factors are Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller– Last week in their matchup against the Saints, Scotty Miller had the only 20+ yard catch on a 3rd and 7 to bring the Bucs into field goal range. On a 3rd and 12, Tyler Johnson made a spectacular catch on the sideline to keep another key drive alive. The Packers secondary is very strong, guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin may struggle to get open, that’s where these secondary receivers come in and play a huge role.
The expected outcome
The Packers have a 53% FPI chance of winning this game on Saturday, and I tend to agree with that prediction. I don’t think the Packers are a team you can beat twice in a year. Their offense is insane and their defense holds their own. With the way Rodgers has been playing, I don’t think he can be beaten. Not even by the greatest of all time, Tom Brady. It should be a barn burner in Green Bay, make sure you tune in, 3:05PM ET on Fox.
