John Berger
Reporter
The second weekend of the NCAA tournament gave us a great slate of games. Every single one of the 12 games was entertaining in its own way. There are now just four teams that are left: Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State, and Kansas. There are no more mid majors left in the field. Just the big boys. The four teams have combined for 49 final four appearances. That’s a ridiculous number.
Before we look ahead to this weekend, let’s look back at this past weekend and what we learned:
1. Ohio State is good: The Buckeyes beat a pair of Big East teams in Boston to go to the Final Four. First, they knocked off Cincinnati in a tremendous performance that four players score in double figures in a 15 point win. Next, they defeated Syracuse in a close one despite not getting much of a contribution from Senior William Buford. OSU has been my pick to win it all since the brackets were released, and I’m still on their bandwagon.
2. Kentucky may be even better: The knock on John Calipari’s teams has always been that they’re too inexperienced. Eventually, they’ll fold under pressure in the tournament. To be fair, Calipari has never won a National Championship, so some of the criticism is certainly justified. This team looks poised to win the National Championship. They have incredible talent, great balance and the right chemistry to go along with it.
3. Rick Pitino isn’t done yet: After an embarrassing 31 point loss to Providence in January, most people questioned whether or not Pitino still had what it takes to be a great coach. He’s been a really successful coach throughout his career, but even Louisville Cardinals fans were wondering if Pitino could still be successful. After a 10-8 Big East season, the Cardinals turned it on in the Big East tournament, winning four games in four days to earn a 4 seed in the dance. Now they are going to the final four thanks to some great team defense and resolve.
4. North Carolina just didn’t have enough without Kendall Marshall: UNC, a team with a bevy of future NBA players, a hall of fame coach, and the ACC player of the year, just couldn’t get past Kansas without Kendall Marshall, their leader and point guard. The Tar Heels were ranked #1 in the preseason, but couldn’t put it all together this year, and they went home after an elite eight loss for the second straight year.
5. Kansas can play with anyone: Throughout the season, lots of people have questioned Kansas. The biggest criticism of the Jayhawks is that they lack the depth that they have had in past yeas. By going to the final four, Kansas has proven that they belong. Thomas Robinson is a legit player of the year candidate, and their starting 5 is about as good as it gets in college basketball.
Now for some thoughts on the upcoming games this weekend and predictions:
Kentucky-Louisville-
I really, really want to pick against Kentucky and go with the upset. Maybe this is the game where Kentucky’s youth catches up to them, where John Calipari faces a coach that is just better than him. Maybe UK just has a bad shooting night, and it all unravels. Anthony Davis gets in foul trouble, Marquis Teague starts turning the ball over like he did early in the season.
But I just can’t do that. Louiville is really good on defense with a 2-3 zone and they’re number 1 in defensive efficiency according to kenpom.com. But Kentucky just has too many guys who can score, and they play tremendous team defense. Louisville can struggle a lot to score sometimes and I don’t think they’ll be able to score enough to win.
Ohio State-Kansas
For some reason this game is the second game of the night, even though most people would probably agree that the Kentucky-Louisville game is more interesting. I’m one of the few that is probably more interested in this game. Both teams are very good, and have been ranked in the top 10 for most of the season. This game is also a rematch of a game earlier this year between the two teams. In December, KU beat Ohio State in Kansas, when the Buckeyes were without star big man Jared Sullinger.
These two teams match up pretty well, and the game should be very competitive. Kansas likes to spread the floor and make use of their two elite big men, Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey. At times they’ll use high ball screens for their guards, but most of the time KU likes to move the ball by passing and isolate opponents one on one. Bill Self runs a “high-low” motion offense. They like to bring one big man up to the high post which allows them to effectively isolate their other big man in the low post for good scoring opportunities.
Against Purdue and North Carolina, Kansas has gone to a triangle and two defense that is used to stall opposing offenses. Purdue and UNC looked perplexed against the triangle and two defense, and they were barely able to score down the stretch. If KU breaks out this defense on Saturday against Ohio State, expect OSU coach Thad Matta to make use of a zone offense that creates mismatches by having guards screen for big men giving the bigs open shots near the basket. If Kansas fronts the post, Ohio State will likely run cross screens with pin downs to get power forward Deshaun Thomas open. Thomas has been on fire in the tournament, averaging over 20 points per game.
This will be a classic battle between two great teams and coaches. I like Ohio State to win this one.
Championship Prediction:
I have to stay with Ohio State. I predicted them to win it all back when the brackets were released, and I’m sticking with them. Kentucky is great team, but I think Ohio State has enough in terms of on ball pressure and quality big men to beat Kentucky. If Ohio State can keep getting big contributions from guys like Lenzelle Smith Jr, they’re going to be very tough to take down.
That’s it for this week, let’s see how I do.
