John Berger
Reporter
By now, you are probably in the same position as I am. In other words, your bracket probably has been busted.
I had a very good opening session on Thursday. I only missed one game. But then, I started missing left and right. South Dakota State lost to Baylor. VCU beat Wichita State. UNLV lost to Colorado. And so on and so forth.
I don’t want my bracketing mishaps to take away from a very good first weekend of games. Friday was particularly crazy, with two 15 or 2 seed upsets.
Here are some of my thoughts on what happened over the weekend:
1. The Duke loss was easy to see coming: This Duke team had a good year, but their flaws were apparent throughout the season. Coach K led his team to a 2 seed, a very good feat, but Blue Devils’ record probably masked some key deficiencies they had. For one, Duke extended their defense on the perimeter in order to disrupt the flow of the opposing team’s offense. When you have very athletic players, that style of defense can wreak havoc. But this Duke just didn’t have the athleticism needed to defend in that way. All year long opposing guards blew by Duke on the perimeter. In the tournament, Lehigh’s CJ McCollum lit up the Blue Devils to the tune of 30 points.
2. Once again, March is unpredictable: Thursday’s games were pretty boring in terms of upsets. Only two lower seeded teams won. But on Friday, all hell broke loose. Lehigh beat Duke. Norfolk State beat Missouri. Ohio beat Michigan. South Florida beat Temple. NC State beat San Diego State. In the sweet sixteen, we now have three double digit seeds.
3. Every team is beatable: Most pundits have declared some teams in this tournament near “locks” to make the final four. I simply don’t see it that way. Every team this year has flaws, some bigger than others. Kentucky, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Syracuse are all capable of going down this weekend. Michigan State had to pull out a close win against 9th seeded St. Louis. Syracuse was in a tight game with 16th seeded UNC-Asheville. North Carolina may have to deal with starting point guard Kendall Marshall being out. And Kentucky plays Indiana on Friday, a team they lost to earlier in the season. Every team is vulnerable.
Now here are my picks for this weekend:
Before I get started, you’re probably wondering: why should I listen to him? To be honest, I was pretty bad with my picks last week. But I’m confident this week. So let’s see how I do.
Syracuse OVER Wisconsin:
Turnovers. That’s the key here. If Wisconsin can protect the ball on offense, they have a very good chance at winning. Wisconsin likes to play at a slow pace, and they are very efficient on both offense and defense. The Badgers were pretty effective at slowing down the fast paced North Carolina Tar Heels earlier this season. This will be a tougher task though. Syracuse plays a 2-3 zone which forces a lot of steals. The convert those steals to points very quickly with their guards. I think they’ll do that enough on Thursday.
Michigan State OVER Louisville:
I’m not sold on Michigan State as a legit National Championship contender. But they certainly have the toughness and the balance to make the final four. Draymond Green is a multitalented threat on both ends of the floor. Louisville is a scrappy team that can play with most teams in the country. They’re more than comfortable with playing a physical, grinding game. In the end though, the Spartans just have too much.
Ohio State OVER Cincinnati:
This one is a battle of Ohio. Small Cincy vs Big OSU. I have Ohio State winning my bracket, so I feel obligated to pick the Buckeyes in this one. Cincinnati plays 3-4 guards most of the time, with Yancy Gates as their primary big man down low. Ohio State is very balanced and has two stars in Jared Sullinger and William Buford. Ohio State wins this one.
Marquette OVER Florida:
I love this game already. Both teams have a bevy of guards inside and love to push the pace with lots of possessions. As mentioned last week, Florida likes to shoot a lot of threes, so it is imperative that Marquette closes out well on shooters. Marquette is deadly in transition, and they play hard all the time. Marquette forward Jae Crowder will prove to be too much for Florida.
Baylor OVER Xavier:
There is a TON of individual talent in this game. Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller, Tu Holloway, and Quincy Acy are all exceptionally talented players. Unfortunately for Xavier, three of those guys play for Baylor. Baylor Head Coach Scott Drew leaves a lot to desired with regards to his in-game coaching, but there’s just too much talent on this Baylor team.
UNC OVER Ohio:
Kendall Marshall had surgery Monday on his wrist, and he’s probably doubtful to play in this game on Friday. UNC now has three guards who are out with injuries. Even without Marshall, the Tar Heels point guard, UNC has enough depth at other positions to beat Ohio. The Bobcats are a scrappy team that knows how to win, but UNC will end their run on Friday.
Kentucky OVER Indiana:
This game has the potential to be the best game of the weekend. Kentucky is everybody’s number 1, with a boatload of talent and a team that is hungry to win it all. Meanwhile, Indiana already beat Kentucky earlier this season, so there will certainly be some sort of a “revenge factor” for Kentucky. I think this game will stay close for about 30 minutes before Kentucky pulls away in the last 10 minutes down the stretch. The key will be whether or not Cody Zeller can get Kentucky’s Anthony Davis into foul trouble.
Kansas OVER NC State:
Kansas is almost rounding in to their march form over the past few years. In other words, they’re about to get upset by a lower seeded team. Purdue almost did it on Sunday, but Kansas took the lead in the last 30 seconds and held on. I still think that with the games being in St. Louis, Kansas will be too much for an NC State team that was seeded 11th for a reason.
Finally, here are my picks to come out of each region:
South: Kentucky
Too much talent, and not enough tough competition in their region. They get past Baylor on Sunday to advance to their second straight final four.
West: Marquette
They’ll get by Florida and then beat a Michigan State team that is very vulnerable right now.
East: Ohio State
The Buckeyes finally get over the hump of the sweet 16, and they then advance to the final four.
Midwest: UNC
Even without Kendall Marshall, Coach Roy Williams has this Tar Heel team playing well enough to beat Ohio and then Kansas. They’re so good in the frontcourt that they’ll be too much for Ohio and Kansas to handle.
That’s it for this week. I’ll check in next week and give my final four predictions and a recap of this weekend.
