John Berger
Reporter
The official March Madness bracket was released on Sunday night. Now that we know the tournament field, it’s time to predict the matchups. But first, here are a few thoughts on the bracket:
The committee did a really good job this year, all things considered. The most questionable inclusion into the tournament is Iona, a team that most people had written off after they lost to the Fairfield Stags in the semifinals of the NCAA tournament. Iona will play on Tuesday against BYU. Teams like Seton Hall and Drexel have legitimate gripes with Iona being chosen over them.
The seeding was very good for the most part as well. Florida was seeded at 7, and most people thought they would be about a 5 seed or so. New Mexico received a 5 seed, which is a bit surprising. I thought they should’ve warranted a 7 seed.
Now some thoughts on some of the tough opening round games:
5 Vanderbilt- 12 Harvard-
I’m sure you’ve all heard the SAT jokes about this matchup by now, so I won’t repeat them. Don’t let the academic reputations of these two schools fool you. Both teams are very good. Vandy is coming off an SEC tournament championship in which they knocked off Kentucky, the top ranked team in the country in the final. Harvard only lost four games all year, and won the Ivy league regular season title.
Vanderbilt has three very good players in Festus Ezeli, John Jenkins, and Jeffrey Taylor. They attempted 734 three pointers on the season, a large number, but they made 39% of those threes, which is very good. They have a balanced offensive attack predicated on post-ups inside and perimeter shooting.
Harvard is not your typical Ivy League team or Mid-Major team. They don’t shoot very many threes, only 494 for the year. They have two very good inside players with Keith Wright and Kyle Casey. Harvard has not been a dominant team this year, but they have won a lot of games.
Prediction: Vanderbilt wins. The Commodores are on fire right now after winning the SEC tournament. They have lost three consecutive first round games, but expect that to change this year.
7 Florida- 10 Virginia-
This is only one of three games between teams from “power conferences” in the first round. Florida finished third in the SEC and Virginia finished fourth in the ACC. This will be a great game in terms of the contrasting styles of both teams.
Virginia plays a “pack-line” defense, which involves every single off-ball defender being prepared to help prevent dribble drive preparation. As a result, Virginia tends to play at a plodding pace, which makes for low scoring games, with possessions at a premium.
Conversely, Florida is a team that likes to gamble offensively. They like to shoot lots of threes, and often they shoot them early in the shot-clock. With four very capable guards from behind the three point line, the Gators like to shoot the ball.
Expect this game to be very close. It will be a classic chess-match between two very good coaches. It will be a battle of who can control the pace. Expect master tactician Tony Bennett, the Virginia coach, to win out and lead his team to a victory over Florida.
12 Long Beach State- 5 New Mexico-
One could certainly make the argument that these are two of the top five teams out West. Neither of them play in a “Big 6” conference, but both teams are deep and balanced.
New Mexico is led by UCLA transfer Drew Gordon. Gordon averages a double double on the year, and shoots over 50% from the field. The Lobos are a sound, fundamental team that is balanced. Gordon is the team’s leading scorer at 13.4 points per game.
Long Beach State is an interesting team. Throughout the year they have played Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville, Kansas State, and Xavier, all of which are in the NCAA tournament. LBSU comes in battle tested and prepared. The “Beach” is led by point guard Casper Ware, a 5-10 scorer who can put up points in bunches. Along with Ware, Long Beach State has forward T.J Robinson, a double double machine who is a Connecticut native.
The smart money says that you should always pick a 12 over 5 upset in the tournament. That’s what I’m doing here. LBSU has four career 1,000 point scorers. They’re experienced and prepared, a dangerous combination in the tournament.
12 VCU- 5 Wichita State-
Ahh, VCU, the darlings of last year’s tournament. This year Shaka Smart’s team will be a tough game right out of the gate. They play a Wichita State team, that has the size, balance, and experience that you look for in the NCAA tournament.
The only big time contributor back from VCU’s final four team of a year ago is forward Bradford Burgess. Once again though, VCU has managed to find others to step up and produce. The Rams love to pressure full court and come up with steals. You have to be extremely strong with the ball to beat them. They’re at their best when the game is choppy.
Meanwhile, Wichita State is a team that most pundits are picking to go far. A loss in the semifinals dampened some of the national expectations for Wichita, but they are still a very dangerous team. The Shockers have four players who average in double digits in scoring. In addition, seven players in their rotation receive at least 20 minutes a game. They are lethally efficient on offense, shooting nearly 50% from the field.
This game has the potential to be very good. But I like Wichita State in this one because of their size and offensive prowess. If they can cut down on turnovers against VCU, they have a very good chance of winning.
Some upset specials:
14 South Dakota State over 3 Baylor-
South Dakota State has an awesome nickname, the Jackrabbits. They’re also pretty good. Guard Nate Wolters is the best player you’ve never heard of. They are very good on offense and good enough at rebounding to compete against a talented Baylor team. This game will be high scoring, but I’m predicting a Jackrabbits win in the final minutes.
11 NC State over 6 San Diego State-
This isn’t as gutsy a pick as the South Dakota State one, but it’s an upset nonetheless. NC State had to sweat their way to get into the tournament, but they’re a tough team. The Wolfpack almost knocked off North Carolina on Saturday. San Diego State is a very good team, but I don’t think they have the offensive playmakers to keep up with NC State.
That’s it for this week. Check back later for my bracket. Next week we’ll have the recap of this weekend’s games and a preview of next weekend’s games. See ya.
