John Berger
Senior Editor
With the second round of the NBA playoffs about to begin, it’s time to make some predictions. Realistically, there is a big gap between the so-called elite teams in the NBA and everybody else, and arguably an even bigger gap between the Miami Heat and the other elite teams. The first round has become increasingly uncompetitive lately. Any type of upset is really rare in today’s NBA. Over the last ten years, lower seeded teams have only won a series about 16.7% of the time.
In the eastern conference, I’ll just get my pick out of the way now. The
Miami Heat are going to win the conference. They have one of the top five players in the history of the sport, another surefire hall of famer, and another guy who’s a legitimate all-star. That alone is enough to make them really, really good. But then they also have a bunch of solid role players to complement that core group of guys. The Knicks are dangerous because Carmelo Anthony has been ridiculously good lately, and they have enough star power to contend with the Heat. I can actually see the Knicks taking the Heat to six games, but it’s really hard to see them winning the series. Having to beat LeBron James four times in about two weeks is almost an impossible task. A lot of people mentioned the Indiana Pacers as a possible contender in the middle of the season, but Roy Hibbert seems to have taken a step backwards and they’ve struggled with injuries all year. Needless to say, the East is the Heat’s to lose.
In the West, I think that it will be more competitive. Just last week, the Thunder’s Russell Westbrook tore his meniscus, and he’s now out for the rest of the playoffs. That really hurts the Thunder’s chances of even reaching the finals, let alone winning. Before Westbrook went down, the Thunder were the second best team in the NBA, capable of challenging the Heat. Now, they are vulnerable and capable of being picked off before reaching the conference finals. The Spurs handily beat a Laker’s team without Kobe Bryant, showing their great balance. Outside of the top two seeds, the Clippers are probably the most dangerous team. They have two of the top ten players in the entire league, and they’re fourth in the league in offensive efficiency. In the end though, I don’t think Vinny Del Negro is a good enough coach to take the Clippers past the second round, and certainly not good enough of a coach to beat Gregg Popovich of the Spurs. Despite Westbrook’s injury, the Thunder still have a puncher’s chance because of Kevin Durant. Lost in all the hype about LeBron’s season is the fact that Kevin Durant is putting up ridiculous numbers as well. If you add up his shooting percentages on field goals, three pointers, and free throws, they add up to 180. He’s only the second guy since the 90’s not named Steve Nash to shoot 50% from the field, 40% from three, and 90% from the free throw line. Still, I don’t think the Thunder can beat the Spurs in a playoff series. Give the Spurs one guy to key on, and they become really hard to beat.
As for the finals, I think the Heat will win in six over the Spurs. The Spurs are on their last legs with these current players, and I get the sense that they really know that the window is closing. But even with a great sense of urgency, it won’t be enough to beat the Heat. Not with LeBron James playing the way he is. The Heat’s biggest weakness, if you can call it that, is their defensive rebounding, but the Spurs are ranked next to last in the league in offensive rebounding rate, so I don’t think they’ll be able to exploit it. Look for LeBron to continue the dominant run he’s been on with another championship.
