John Berger
Senior Editor
For weeks leading up to the start of this year’s NCAA basketball tournament, a number of experts all said that they thought the tournament would be very unpredictable. It turns out that the experts were right. During the first weekend of the big dance, one #2 seed and two #1 seeds went down. In addition, a team that just became a Division 1 school two years ago, Florida Gulf Coast, knocked off Georgetown and San Diego State to advance to the Sweet 16. Almost everyone’s bracket is pretty much shot, but there are still a lot of good games to be played and I’ll do my best to predict how the rest of the tournament will play out.
Midwest Bracket-
Louisville vs Oregon- Friday, 7:15, Indianapolis, Indiana:
You’d probably be hard pressed to find two teams that were more impressive in the first round of the tournament than Louisville and Oregon. Louisville won their first two games by an average of 28.5 points, and Oregon led by double digits pretty much the entire way in both of their games, including a 17 point win against a really good St.Louis team. Last week I wrote about how shocked I was that Oregon was only a 12 seed, and their performance this past weekend only further validated that they should’ve been at least a 9 seed. Oregon’s gone 5-0 against top 25 teams this season, and they won the Pac-12 tournament. Louisville is arguably the best team in the country, and when they can effectively apply defensive pressure, there’s nobody that’s better. The key in this one will be if Oregon can get at least one of their guys to have a really good shooting night. The Ducks are really balanced, but they lack a go-to guy that is often needed during march madness. EJ Singler or Damyean Dotson may end up being that person. Louisville is really reliant on their two upperclassmen guards, Russ Smith and Peyton Siva. Those two guys have combined for over a 50% usage rate. If one of them gets in foul trouble, Louisville becomes a lot more vulnerable. I think Louisville will win this one because I don’t think Oregon is quite prepared enough to face their defensive pressure.
Pick: Louisville
Michigan State vs Duke, Friday, 9:45, Indianapolis, Indiana:
This is a game that I’m really looking forward to. Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski are clearly two of the best coaches in all of college basketball, and watching these two teams battle will be very interesting. Both of these teams have won five out of their last six games, and are at full-strength. Duke is really efficient offensively, and Michigan State is really good defensively. I like Duke to win this one, primarily because I think they have more guys that are capable of taking over a game. Duke’s floor spacing is always really good, and I think a more open game favors them. Not to mention, Mike Krzyzewski is 7-1 all-time against Michigan State, and I think that he’ll be 8-1 at the end of Friday.
Pick: Duke
West Bracket-
Wichita State vs La Salle, Thursday, 10:17, Los Angeles:
I doubt very many people had predicted this sweet 16 matchup in their brackets before the tournament started. Wichita State was very impressive in two games, knocking off Pitt and then #1 seed Gonzaga. La Salle used a really good first half to knock off Kansas State, and then they beat Ole Miss with 2.5 seconds left, which has since been dubbed, “the southwest Philly floater“. Wichita State is the better team, and I think they’ll win this one. They thoroughly outplayed Gonzaga, and they’ve shown that they have a great combination of toughness and skill.
Pick: Wichita State
Arizona vs Ohio State, Thursday, 7:47, Los Angeles:
Arizona’s fan base always travels well, and they have a lot of alumni in Los Angeles, which means that this game should have a partisan Arizona crowd. ‘Zona started off the year really well, and then stumbled somewhat in Pac-12 conference play, but they’re still really talented. Their last two recruiting classes have been ranked in the top five nationally. Ohio State struggled to beat Iowa State, but I think that after getting that bad game out of their system, they can sense that a second straight final four appearance is easily attainable. Ohio State’s top 3 scorers are upperclassmen, and they’re really good defensively, giving up less than a point per possession on average. Despite the crowd disadvantage, I think Ohio State will win.
Pick: Ohio State
South Bracket-
Kansas vs Michigan, Friday, 7:37, Arlington, Texas:
This is probably my second favorite game out of all the sweet 16 match-ups. Both of these teams spent a long time in the top five during the regular season. Michigan seemed to be hitting a wall a few weeks ago, but they were as impressive as any team in the country last weekend, particularly in a 78-53 drubbing of VCU. I love Michigan’s guards, and I think they’re enough to vault Michigan past Kansas on Friday. Kansas has a gaudy record, but they’ve had a lot of close calls and I’m not sold on their talent level as we get further into the tournament. Ben McLemore put up incredible numbers during the regular season, but he’s fallen off a bit recently, as his shooting percentage is down seven percentage points over the last seven games compared to his season average. Michigan hasn’t been past the sweet 16 in a really long time, but I have faith in them now.
Pick: Michigan
Florida Gulf Coast vs Florida, Friday, 9:57, Arlington, Texas:
Florida Gulf Coast is the story of the tournament. They’ve only been a school for a little over two decades, became a D-1 school just two years ago, and they already have two NCAA tournament wins, a viral rap song, and a nickname: “Dunk City”. Lost in the cinderella story is the fact that FGCU is not a fluke. They already beat Miami in the regular season, and nobody could’ve watched their game against Georgetown last week objectively and concluded that Georgetown was the better team. The Eagles run the floor and they won’t be intimidated at all by Florida. Unfortunately for FGCU, Florida has a history of beating the underdog in the NCAA tournament. They knocked off Norfolk State last year, and George Mason seven years ago in the final four. I don’t think Florida will beat Michigan or Kansas, but they spread the floor very well to get effective kick-outs and then they rebound solidly on the offensive glass. Florida just has too many playmakers for FGCU.
East Bracket-
Indiana vs Syracuse, Thursday, 9:45, Washington DC:
Syracuse bounced back pretty well last week after being destroyed in the second half of the Big East tournament championship game, but truthfully their win against Cal was more because of Cal missing open shots than anything ‘Cuse did. Indiana is still my pick to win the National Championship, and although it was concerning to see them play so poorly against Temple on Sunday, the name of the game in March is to survive and advance. Indiana is more balanced and better offensively than Syracuse, and I think the combination of Cody Zeller and strong outside shooting against the Syracuse zone will result in an Indiana win.
Pick: Indiana
Marquette vs Michigan, Thursday, 7:15, Washington DC:
Marquette has been to three straight sweet 16’s, and the entire Miami team hadn’t been to an NCAA tournament before this one. Despite Marquette’s tournament experience, I think this one will result in a Miami win, and it will be pretty lopsided. Marquette played well against Butler, but they’ve still been really lucky in each of their two previous tournament games. Miami had a close game against Illinois, but Miami does pretty much everything that Marquette does, only they’re better at it. I think the Hurricanes will win.
Pick: Miami
