Bobby Mushkin, @bmushkincourant
Divisional Round Recap
In the first of two AFC matchups, the Baltimore Ravens went into Buffalo to face the Bills. It was a chilly night, highlighted by great defense. Lamar Jackson threw a 102 yard pick six to go down 17-3, and the Bills took the win and advanced to the AFC Championship. The final AFC matchup was on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns took a trip to Kansas City to face off against the Chiefs. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down in the third quarter with a concussion, but Chad Henne came in and proved that “Hennething is possible.” The Chiefs won a close game 22-17, and will host the Bills in the AFC Championship.
Bills @ Chiefs Sunday, 1/24 6:40 PM ET
Meeting number one: The Bills defensive game plan
The final game on Sunday is a rematch of an October 19th game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. The first game between these two teams was an odd one, the Chiefs beating the Bills 26-17 in a surprisingly low scoring affair. In this game, the Bills defensive game plan was one we hadn’t seen in 4 1/2 years. The Bills blitzed Patrick Mahomes a total of zero times. They didn’t blitz and they played lots of soft zone coverage in order to take away Mahomes’ biggest weapon, the deep ball.
And they were effective in doing this, however, the underneath areas outside of the middle of the field were vulnerable. Andy Reid did an excellent job of dialing up route concepts that made room for a lot of easy throws. As a result of the Bills not blitzing, Mahomes only threw 5 incompletions the entirety of the game.
When the Bills are on defense on Sunday, pay attention to where their safeties are lined up and how deep the corners drop once the play begins. If we see the same pattern, expect lots of short to medium range passes from Mahomes.
Another thing these soft zone coverages did was incentivize the Chiefs to utilize their young running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. And the Chiefs did, handing the ball off a season high 36 times. While the Bills were imploring the Chiefs to run the ball, I don’t think they expected them to be as effective as they were. The Chiefs ran for 245 yards, their best mark since 2013 when Jamaal Charles ran for 250 on his own.
The Chiefs attacked the soft edges of the Bills defense by running lots of outside zone runs, and doing it effectively. We will have to see how Leslie Frazier game plans for the rematch. The Bills were content with the Chiefs running the ball because at least Mahomes wasn’t throwing it, but they definitely weren’t pleased with their run defense. We will have to see what their defense has in store this week.
Meeting number one: The Chiefs defensive game plan
Now to the Chiefs side of things, in the first matchup, the Chiefs blitzed Josh Allen like crazy, in fact he was blitzed on 15 of his 31 dropbacks. The Chiefs constant pass rush didn’t result in any sacks of Allen, but it achieved its goal. Allen was pressured 54.8% of his dropbacks, and his yards per attempt when pressured was only 3.4.
The sole purpose of blitzing Allen was to keep him in the pocket, as he is most dangerous when scrambling outside the pocket and making a play downfield. Allen didn’t scramble once against the blitz and only scrambled a total of 4 times the whole game.
In the first game between these two, the Bills offensive line struggled without John Feliciano and Mitch Morse. But since those two have returned, the Bills have been among the best in pass protection in the league. If the Bills lineman can hold up against the Chiefs front, this game could be a serious shootout.
It will also be interesting to see how aggressive the Chiefs are in coverage, and how Allen will react. The Chiefs were aggressive with their pass rush, but they were just as aggressive in their secondary. Most of the game the Chiefs played man to man coverage against a lethal Bills receiving core, and did a great job of stopping them.
But it wasn’t just the Chiefs man coverage, Josh Allen was inaccurate, missing easy throws all night. Once Allen got ahold of his accuracy issue, the Chiefs switched up their coverage. They alternated between zone schemes, never quite letting Allen get comfortable.
They sent pressure and played a four under, two deep zone, they played Tampa 2, and they mixed in man coverage. Allen looked flustered with all of these subtle changes to coverage, and eventually he bent on the final possession and threw an interception directly to a Chiefs player.
The health of Patrick Mahomes
The big question mark heading into Sunday is the status of Patrick Mahomes’ health. He is still in the concussion protocol, but is expected to practice today. If Mahomes is available to play, the Chiefs chances of winning shoot up exponentially. The concussion Mahomes suffered shouldn’t be what Chiefs fans are worried about though, with the progress he has already made in clearing the steps for concussion protocol, he should be ready to go on Sunday.
What is concerning about Mahomes and this upcoming game is his foot that he appeared to injure on Sunday against the Browns. Mahomes appeared to be laboring after taking a hit in the second quarter on a scramble. If this impacts his mobility on Sunday, that could be a really big deal. While Mahomes doesn’t need to scramble to be the star player that he is, against the Bills he might. He scrambled several times in the first meeting and averaged 11.5 yards per throw when outside the pocket. He clinched the game through a scramble as well.
With Buffalo dropping back in coverage, there was plenty of room for Mahomes to work with if he couldn’t locate an open receiver. If Mahomes can’t move well, suddenly those soft zone looks will be much more beneficial. Also, if Mahomes isn’t moving well in the pocket and is less capable of buying time for Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to get downfield, the Bills may see this weakness and decide they will blitz this time. The mobility that Mahomes shows may dictate the Bills defensive game plan.
X-Factor Players
This rematch of the AFC’s top 2 teams will be nothing short of entertaining. These two teams are so evenly matched, it may come down to some key players on both sides. Here are my X-Factors for the Bills: Entire defense– When it comes to the Bills chances of winning this game, it doesn’t trickle down to just one player.
When you are going up against a guy like Mahomes with a team around him like the Chiefs, your whole squad needs to be ready. It isn’t gonna just come down to the secondary for Buffalo, it will come down to how the defense as a whole plays. They have been on fire recently, they are confident, they are more than ready to go out and try and win this football game. But if their defense isn’t playing in unison, staying disciplined and sticking to the game script, their chances of winning are little. So, the X-Factor for the Bills on Sunday is their defense as a whole.
The Chiefs X-Factor’s are Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce- I know they might be the boring pick as an X-Factor, but they truly will be the reason the Chiefs win or lose. It feels like every single game Mahomes throws for 300+ yards, Tyreek snags 100+ yards and a TD, and Kelce does the same.
So far this season, every game that Kelce and Hill combine for 200 yards, the Chiefs have won. Patrick Mahomes as a starter this year, was 14-1. The Chiefs have lost one total game since November 10th, 2019. When Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce play, the Chiefs are basically unbeatable. So that is why they are my X-Factors. When Mahomes gets the ball to his playmakers, the Chiefs win.
Buffalo’s defensive tear
The Bills defense started out this season rough, ranking 20th in points per game, 20th in efficiency, and 26th in third down percentage up until week 12. But, since week 12, the Bills are 2nd in points per game, 3rd in efficiency, and 6th in third down percentage. It’s not just the offense that’s on fire right now, the defense is hot too. They are coming off a game where they held a high scoring Baltimore Ravens team to just 3 points. Whether or not the Bills defense can continue this reign of terror will be the determining factor in this game.
Expected outcome
We know both teams can score, but whichever defense plays better will decide who wins the game. The Chiefs have a 47% FPI chance of winning if Mahomes is unable to play, but they have a 62.8% FPI chance to win if Mahomes is in the lineup. Tune into CBS at 6:40PM ET for a shootout between two top three offenses!
